Tuesday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic data to drive trading and a relatively calm opening in stocks. The stock markets are showing small losses, but considering the volatility of recent this is of little news. The Dow is currently down 17 points while the Nasdaq has lost 7 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which should push this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for today that is likely to influence bond trading or Massachusetts mortgage rates. This leaves the stock markets as the likely candidate to any changes in mortgage rates this afternoon. If the major stock indexes fall from current levels, I can see bond prices improving enough to revise Massachusetts mortgage rates slightly lower later today. However, if those indexes move into positive ground, the only change to mortgage pricing will probably be higher.
Tomorrow has only one report scheduled for release that is semi-relevant to Massachusetts mortgage rates. That report is February’s New Home Sales that tracks purchases of newly constructed homes. It is the sister report to yesterday’s Existing Home Sales release, but carries less importance because it tracks only approximately 15% of all home sales in the U.S. Forecasts are calling for a slight increase in sales from January’s level, but after the surprise drop in yesterday’s report I would not be surprised to see some analysts revise their estimates lower. Still, it will take a wide variance from forecasts for this report to cause much movement in Massachusetts mortgage rates. If we see a noticeable change in tomorrow’s pricing it will likely have come from new from overseas’ events.
We are at a fairly important crossroads for Massachusetts mortgage rates in my opinion. The recent stock selling push bond yields below their trading range during the time. The rebound in stocks that followed led to bond prices falling and yields moving higher, but not back to their levels before the stock selling began. This has me thinking that bond traders are expecting a pullback in stock prices in the immediate future. If stock prices are able to hold current positions (Dow is above 12,000) in the coming days or week, we could see bonds give back the rest of their flight-to-safety gains and mortgage rates move noticeably higher. However, if the major stock indexes fall from where they are now, funds will likely move back into bonds and we would see Massachusetts mortgage rates move lower.
Also worth noting is the Fed’s announcement yesterday that they will start unwinding their holdings in mortgage securities that they acquired during the financial crisis. They currently hold approximately $142 billion in mortgage-backed securities, but they are expected to sell them in smaller chunks. What does this mean for mortgage shoppers? Well, we will have to see. However, anytime more debt is available in the market it lowers demand for current offerings. That could equate to higher mortgage pricing as investors have more options available, making current debt less appealing. The bottom line is that the additional selling could cause Massachusetts mortgage rates to move higher, at least temporarily. It will be interesting to see just how much of an impact those sales will have on day-to-day mortgage rates. I am sure we will hear more about this topic in the near future.
Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends
If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…
This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.